United States · USD
S&P 500 annual returns beyond the average in our 2026 guide
A long run average hides the years you actually live through. These completed calendar year returns show the declines, rebounds and contribution timing behind a historical result, not a promised return for the next twenty years.
2026 edition · Complete years 2005–2025 · USD total returns · Historical illustration, not a forecast.
Compare my own savings scenarios$10,000 became $83,065. Not in a straight line.
That is a historical compound result for 2005–2025, not a projection. The annual table shows the negative years that a single average conceals.
- Initial lump sum → end of 2025
- $83,065 $10,000 before 2005 · dividends reinvested
- Annualized compound return
- 10.61% 21 completed years · before costs and taxes
- Worst calendar year in this window
- -36.55% 2008 · annual total return, not maximum drawdown
| Calendar year | Total return | Lump-sum balance at year-end |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +17.78% | $83,065 |
| 2024 | +24.88% | $70,526 |
| 2023 | +26.06% | $56,475 |
| 2022 | -18.04% | $44,800 |
| 2021 | +28.47% | $54,661 |
| 2020 | +18.02% | $42,548 |
| 2019 | +31.21% | $36,051 |
| 2018 | -4.23% | $27,476 |
| 2017 | +21.61% | $28,689 |
| 2016 | +11.77% | $23,591 |
| 2015 | +1.38% | $21,107 |
| 2014 | +13.52% | $20,820 |
| 2013 | +32.15% | $18,340 |
| 2012 | +15.89% | $13,878 |
| 2011 | +2.10% | $11,975 |
| 2010 | +14.82% | $11,729 |
| 2009 | +25.94% | $10,215 |
| 2008 | -36.55% | $8,111 |
| 2007 | +5.48% | $12,784 |
| 2006 | +15.61% | $12,119 |
| 2005 | +4.83% | $10,483 |
Illustrative index calculation, not an account statement, investment recommendation or forecast. Fees, taxes, inflation and currency conversion are excluded. Full assumptions are below.
A historical path, not a constant growth rate
The chart compounds the annual S&P 500 total returns in Aswath Damodaran’s January 2026 NYU series. It starts with $10,000 immediately before 2005 and ends after 2025. Dividends are included and assumed reinvested. The line connects year end observations. It does not show daily or monthly market movements.
2026 is not a completed calendar year at this edition’s October review date, so it has no invented full year return in the table. This is a U.S.-dollar index illustration before fees, taxes, inflation and currency conversion. An index is not directly investable. A fund’s results can differ.
Why contribution timing changes the answer
The second example starts with no balance and contributes $3,600 at each year end for 21 years: $75,600 contributed altogether. It finishes at $334,167 in this historical annual return model. That is not a $300-per month backtest. Year end deposits miss that year’s returns.
Reversing the same annual returns gives a different contribution path outcome, about $196,696. That reversed sequence is a counterfactual illustration, not a second observed history. A single initial lump sum would have the same final value under either ordering, because its return factors simply multiply.
Arithmetic average is not compound growth
The arithmetic mean of these 21 annual returns is about 12.03%. The annualized compound rate for the lump sum is about 10.61%. They answer different questions. Applying the arithmetic mean every year would not reproduce the historical end balance.
The displayed percentages come from one consistent NYU series, rounded to two decimal places. Other providers can use different conventions or precision. Calculations here use the displayed rates and do not mix providers. Past performance does not establish a future rate or remove the risk of losses.
Choose a sustainable plan, not the prettiest past line
Before setting a contribution, account for upcoming bills, debt and cash needs. Then compare several hypothetical rates in the savings calculator, including 0%, rather than treating this historical period as your forecast.
Deco can help you follow the accounts, assets and debts you record. The research does not choose investments for you, offer a fund, or promise the historical result.
Compare my own savings scenarios
Use your actual starting balance and monthly contribution. Keep the assumed rate visible and compare it with a no growth scenario.
Compare my own savings scenariosSources and calculation notes
NYU Stern, Aswath Damodaran, historical returns
January 2026 update. S&P 500 including dividends. Annual observations for 2005–2025. Deco compounds the displayed annual rates.
Investor.gov, past performance
SEC investor education on performance and the limitations of historical returns. Not a source of the return series.
Deco · Analysis checked:
